🔗 Share this article Can Scotland at last end their All Blacks hoodoo? The All Blacks have made three adjustments to the team that overcame the Irish team Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital When: Saturday, 8 November Time: 3:10 PM GMT Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement. After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match. A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride." Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent. Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued. Recent History Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent. In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses. Squad Updates In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way. Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory. We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality. Missing Players Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback. The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern. During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations. Squad Depth They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years. And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class. Coaching Choices Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power. The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable. Historical Context Graham crossed the line in the narrow loss to New Zealand in the previous encounter Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick. That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues. Statistical Analysis Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half. Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively. What Scotland Needs Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily. The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity. Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks. Final Analysis Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost. But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham. Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.